Introduction. Organisation. Setup.

Eduard Bukin

Welcome to MP-223-EN Applied Econometrics Methods for the Social Sciences (SoSe 2023)

Author: Eduard Bukin eduard.bukin@agrar.uni-giessen.de

  • Institute of Agricultural Policy and Market Research
  • phone: +49 641 99-37055
  • office: Zeughaus (Senckenbergstr. 3). Room: 132
  • hours: Part time (better to make an appointment)

Course objectives

  1. get familiar with fundamental econometric techniques;
  2. develop ability to reason on the appropriation of specific econometric methods;
  3. learn how to apply those econometrics in “R”;
  4. exercise interpreting and communicating results;

  • Develop practical skills of applying following empirical econometric methods in R:

    • Multiple regression analysis;
    • Panel regression analysis;
    • Binary outcome variable;
    • Instrumental variable;
    • Impact evaluation (DID and RDD);

Motivation

Have you ever heard that “vaccination causes autism”?

See (Wakefield et al., 1998).

  • A. Wakefield et, al. “Ileal-lymphoid-nodular hyperplasia, non-specific colitis, and pervasive developmental disorder in children”. In: The Lancet 351.9103 (Feb. 1998), pp. 637-641. DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(97)11096-0 web-page.

  • Retracted in February 2010. See Lancet MMR autism fraud.

  • “The Lancet” is an influential journals

  • Each field has own seminal journal:

    • Ag. Econ - “American Journal of Agricultural Economics” with IF 2.245 (2017)

    • Econometrics - “Econometrica” with IF 5.84 (2020)

    • Development economics - “World Development” has the IF 5.278 (2020)

Wakefield et al. (1998). Introduction (1/2)

Research question: Early report on medical cases;

Data:

  • 12 children (mean age 6 years [range 3–10], 11 boys).

    • regularly saw a gastroenterologist;

    • had “… a history of normal development followed by loss of acquired skills, including language [autism]…”;

  • “Control” group is made post factum, artificially, matching 12 random children of the same age/gender.

Wakefield et al. (1998). Introduction (2/2)

Treatment:

  • Measles and/or MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccines at the age of 12-16 month;

Outcome:

  • Autism diagnosis [Yes/No] and linguistic disorders in 24 hours to 2 month after vaccination

  • Blood and urine sample tests out of norms at the time of research [3-10 years old];

Wakefield et al. (1998). Findings / Contributions

Vaccinated group (treatment):

  1. in 8/12 children behavioral problems [autism].

  2. intestinal abnormalities and chronic inflammation;

  3. urine tests are significantly different from “control” group;

Counter factual (12 children from the population with the same age/gender):

  1. no disorders.

  2. no abnormalities or inflammation;

  3. good tests;

  • Contributes with a theoretical mechanism of the consequences of the MMR vaccination.

Wakefield et al. (1998). Conclusions / Impact:

  1. Conclusion:

    • Mumps or MMR vaccination causes autism.

  2. Societal impact

What is wrong with Wakefield et al. (1998) ?

  • Any guesses?

  • Let us use the whiteboard…

  • By the end of this lecture, we should (ideally) be able to reason about this!

The people

Lecturers: Eduard Bukin

Data science enthusiast, econometrics practitioner. PhD Student.

Institute of Agricultural Policy and Market Research

2015 – MS in Rural Development:

  • Ghent University, Belgium

Research interests:

  • Agricultural structures and productivity

  • Land and labor in agriculture

  • Spatial econometrics

Lecturers: Christoph Funk

Christoph.Funk@wirtschaft.uni-giessen.de. Website.

Post Doc.

Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU) Justus Liebig Universität

2020 - PhD in economics from Justus Liebig University Giessen

Research interests:

  • SDG monitoring

  • Climate change vulnerability

  • Adaptation strategies

  • Energy economics

  • Econometric modelling

Lecturers: Vladimir Otrachshenko

Vladimir.Otrachshenko@zeu.uni-giessen.de. Website.

Senior Researcher.

Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU) Justus Liebig Universität

2013 - PhD in Economics from Nova School of Business and Economics, Lisbon, Portugal

Research interests:

  • Environmental and Resource Economics
  • Climate Change
  • Health and Population Economics

Your turn!

  • Please introduce yourself

    • What is your name?
    • Where do you come from?
    • What do you study?

  • What is your background?

  • What are your expectations?

Organization

Course structure (1/4)

In presence

  • Every Wednesday 14:00 - 18:00, Room: Senckenbergstr. 03, 216 (Ze-PC2)

Course structure (2/4)

Online resources:

Course structure (3/4)

  • Lectures in person

    • Slides on Ilias.

  • Exercises (in class or at home)

    • Sometimes have pre requisites (watch a video, read a paper)

    • Sometimes require preparation in advance;

    • Sometimes are also pre-recorded.

Course structure (4/4)

Examination:

  • 60% written exam (90 minutes in the time of examination session)

  • 40% practical homework.

    • 2 short individual assignments (20% + 20%).

    • Students are expected to develop econometric analysis in R and submit it’s results (and code).

    • Homework build on the materials form the class and demonstrate ability to perform selected econometric analysis independently.

References

MP223-Applied Econometrics (SoSe 2023). Author: Eduard Bukin (2023). | GitHub | StudIP | ILIAS.

Wakefield, A., Murch, S., Anthony, A., Linnell, J., Casson, D., Malik, M., … Walker-Smith, J. (1998). RETRACTED: Ileal-lymphoid-nodular hyperplasia, non-specific colitis, and pervasive developmental disorder in children. The Lancet, 351(9103), 637–641. http://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(97)11096-0